Good morning.

I am rarely at a loss for words but today happens to be one of those times … as I am reviewing all the goings-on since yesterday morning and frankly, don’t know what to think.

For some, a 90-day tariff pause (other than 10% already announced) was put in place yesterday even after administration leaders professed many times in recent days that this would not happen, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying “this was the plan all along.”

While market participants were overjoyed upon the announcement, especially (no doubt) those who bought call options immediately before … some who may already have taken losses … or faced margin calls … probably were not so happy with the announcement and result.

As far as what lies ahead … we’ll see … as it appears the main battle now is between the U.S. and China … with both sides increasing tariff rates charged to the other … along with associated rhetoric … effectively stifling trade.

I don’t know if we are yet prepared for … or understanding … what will result.  Sure, an inflation number came out this morning which shows us creeping towards the Fed-ideal 2% mark … but many feel the price of goods are about to jump once more … as supply constricts.

Moving away from comments made by politicians, Jamie Dimon still feels a recession is likely and not only shares his view that CEOs will start to rein in spending … but also claims that some defaults might occur as a result of the vehicle President Trump has already put in motion.

And markets today are seeing another sharp drop in stocks … experiencing what some claim as reality setting in.

The biggest problem of all … and yes, this is mainly opinion … and some will rightfully blast me for saying this … is what the standing of the U.S. will be down the road based on the actions taking place today.

I don’t know … and debated this with someone this morning at breakfast … what we want to be at the end of the day.

For is it better to be admired as a country … or feared?

We have the power to take either path.

I just hope we have chosen the right one.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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A Look At The News | April 10, 2025 As of 11:28 AM today: A bit of good news came in on the inflation front, as the growth in March was lower than anticipated … moving toward that “special” 2% target (CNBC)https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/inflation-rate-eases-to-2point4percent-in-march-lower-than-expected.html  … but how will this work out in the future?  Tariffs were not in effect in March, so will the inflation number for April soar? (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5355008/tariffs-sticky-prices   … regardless, the damage may have already been done and Jamie Dimon feels that even with the “pause” the odds for recession have become greater (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/04/09/jamie-dimon-trump-tariffs-recession/83006735007/   One silver lining has been the drop I oil prices if this leads to lower prices at the pump.  But the reason is problematic as it may be due to thoughts that economic slowdown lies ahead (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/oil-prices-fall-as-traders-focus-on-escalating-us-china-trade-war.html   … and one fear is that China uses its manufacturing strength to lure other countries over to its “side” … as the battle between China and the U.S. continues (APNews) https://apnews.com/article/china-us-tariffs-negotiations-f5acfd1ef8f3573f92e8963a8150bdfb   There is one big question that remains. Did Trump’s action yesterday solve anything?  Or will uncertainty remain throughout his entire presidency? (CSMonitor) https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2025/0410/trump-tariffs-pause-markets-uncertainty The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.