Good morning.

Stocks are treading water so far today … little changed from last night … though trending downward … amid increasing worries that an economic downturn might lie ahead.

Along these lines, a CNBC survey of CEOs shows 60% expect a recession in the second half of this year … a separate Deutsche Bank survey has recession odds approaching 50% … and a recent consumer survey on the economy shows optimism at a 12-year low.

Not surprisingly, tariffs … or, rather, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs … is often cited as a main reason.  There is, of course, understanding as to the mood of CFOs as CNBC reports 95% (which is quite a large number) said policy is impacting their ability to make business decisions.

Meanwhile, yet another tariff announcement came in this morning … as the Trump Administration claims an extra charge on copper might be instituted earlier than anticipated. By the way … our main trading partners for copper? Chile, Canada and Mexico.  What is weird about this is we have a free trade agreement with Chile (the U.S.-Chile Free Trade Agreement) … and we have a trade surplus with them. So, a unilateral move on this would be puzzling unless Chile is excluded.

The post office is changing … with claims of “improvements” (though with less people) … and the view is we can knock off around $3.6 billion/year. I have an idea, though … that I would like to propose. Why don’t you just deliver junk mail one day a week … say, Saturday … so I can just bring a trash bag out to the mailbox and dump the contents into it rather quickly?

One other bit of news that caught my attention was some in Florida are now complaining that a crackdown on undocumented immigrants has resulted in “employment gaps” … leading to a need for more workers. The solution? Relax the rules on child labor … allowing 14-year-old kids who are home-schooled to work overnight shifts and removing many exemptions for minors who work “in domestic service in private homes.”  Meanwhile, I will admit bias in my research, and I started a search to see where Florida ranked in terms of education … expecting poor scores. Looking at US News … and other sites … I saw just the opposite and it appears Florida has been doing a good job. So, we’ll see if this move has any effect on anything … including my criticism.

That wraps it up for me today as I have a doctor’s appointment this afternoon.

Frankly, I am seated for too many hours during the day, and I realize I need to sit up to improve my posture.

I am sensing too much flabbiness on the back side of my neck, above the shoulders, and it is something to address. It might be nothing.

Just a hunch.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | March 26, 2025 As of 10:49 AM today: With tariffs on steel and aluminum in place the administration is now focusing on copper … and plans to implement those sooner than anticipated (EconomicTimes) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/trump-may-implement-copper-import-tariffs-ahead-of-deadline/articleshow/119512599.cms   This might not help soothe the nerves of some corporate CFOs who feel a recession may hit before the end of the year (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/recession-is-coming-pessimistic-corporate-cfos-say-cnbc-survey.html   … or consumers … whose views on the economy are the most pessimistic they’ve been in more than a dozen years (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/consumer-confidence-in-where-the-economy-is-headed-hits-12-year-low.html   First class mail service is about to change … and while the claim is this will improve things … most will probably wait to see the effect before getting too excited (Newsweek) https://www.newsweek.com/usps-first-class-mail-changes-2046566   When the Cybertruck was announced, interested people (me included) sent in a small deposit to get on the list. Many did not buy … in fact, very many (Wired) https://www.wired.com/story/where-did-the-one-million-people-who-wanted-a-cybertruck-go/   A smart phone has become quite important for teen to have … but it seems their addiction leads to increased stress and depression (StudyFinds) https://studyfinds.org/children-glued-to-phones-stressed-depressed-teens/   The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.