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Good morning.

Stocks are up to start the day as we all wait for today’s Fed announcement with little expectation of anything earth-shattering to result.  At the moment it appears any rate cut … if one occurs at all … won’t happen until June … well, that is what the consensus appears to be anyhow.  Of course, things can change with the economy and/or inflation … but the next meeting is not scheduled until May … so maybe there will be more focus placed on guidance expressed during this afternoon’s press conference than usual.

Economic reports are interesting right now as manufacturing output jumped last month, yet Daily Shot claims “CapEx” plans “moved into negative territory for the first time since the Covid shock.”

And we will certainly be hearing more about “Liberation Day,” which will be April 2, where many tariff plans are scheduled to be instituted.  Still, there is a long way to go until then … and while some things can change the threats made by all sides continue.  One thought is that bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. is optimal, yet the time period is uncertain … and some wonder if robotics (and “AI”) will advance to such a degree that the actual effect on jobs is mitigated.

The NY Fed provided a study of concern reporting a large decline in the percentage of Americans able to come up with $2,000 during the next month if faced with an unexpected need.  While some look at rising prices as an inconvenience … there are others … many others … for whom every increase … no matter how small … results in additional economic pain.

On a final note, Transamerica came up with a survey which shows that … yes … outliving savings and investments is one of the top fears of Americans … but tied with this terror is having declining health that requires long term care.

Health costs … especially situations that deal with dementia … are of major concern … and many don’t even think about it until … well … they are forced to.  In this regard, we have become a nation of hope.

Good health is important, and action should start at a young age.

I recall when I was a kid a doctor told me I had something called “lazy eye.”

… alas, by the time I was 50 I found it had spread to the rest of my body.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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