Good morning.
Markets are down this morning as Wal-Mart’s saying of “look out for falling prices” seems to have been replaced with “look out for fewer customers” … as a warning of a slower 2025 spooked investors with tariffs … while inflation takes center stage.
Meanwhile, there might be one ray of sunshine in the clouds right now (small as it may be) as it pertains to the Fed … as meeting minutes show (as Daily Shot put it) the “FOMC on hold unless labor market deteriorates.” Well, right now a lot of pink slips (not the kind sold at Wal-Mart) are being handed out as many federal workers are being told their services will no longer be required.
And if unemployment dives … as many suspect … the Fed could quickly jump in … but there is one problem. Inflation … and if tariffs result in higher prices … well … Chairman Powell and his group will need to figure out how to fight both rising unemployment and rising inflation.
You must wonder … will people in the U.S. get upset if they see neighbors and friends lose their jobs in the face of renewed austerity?
Maybe not.
A promised $5,000 per taxpayer bailout (my characterization) might go a long way in squashing anger … until that money … if it is received and quickly spent … finds people continuing to have outstretched hands.
Sorry if this seems a bit cynical this morning as I have too many appointments today with little time to review and soften my message.
I just hate the thought of job loss as they are not easy to get in the face of a possibly-slowing economy.
You might not know this about me, but I drove a bus for a few weeks … and lost my job after quite a few passengers complained.
I just didn’t understand where people like this got off.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
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