Good morning.

Stocks are trending down early this morning as China announced an investigation into Nvidia exploring the possibility of monopolistic practices in the purchase of an Israeli tech firm (even though it was approved by Bejing, four years ago).  While this type of review is not entirely rare, one question that comes to mind is if this is retaliation for the U.S. decision to halt shipments to China of top-of-the-line semiconductors … and if this is an indication of what may lie ahead for Nvidia and other U.S. tech firms.

What might, however, be considered is this announcement still hasn’t caused some market strategist to worry, as the chief investment strategist for Oppenheimer just came out with a 2025 end-year projection for the S&P which is around 17% higher than where it stands today. Yowser!  One interesting point is that a year ago this strategist (John Stoltzfus) called for the S&P to hit 5200 … and his projection was far below the S&P’s present level of around 6100. Once the optimist, always the optimist?

Of course, one of the big items most will focus on during the next few weeks will be the next move by the Fed.  Daily Shot looked at a Bloomberg chart and shows the market sees a rate cut in December, followed by a January pause.  Those looking to purchase homes (and there are supposedly many) will, no doubt, be closely watching this … which may come at a good time as the NY Fed just reported household finance optimism just reached a multi-year high, which is the highest reading since Feb. 2020 (pre-Covid).

Well, it seems the New York Mets have come to an agreement with Juan Soto … with a 15-year, $765 million dollar deal. Let’s be frank … I am a big Mets fan and think this will help the team … but I have long blasted what I consider to be over-the-top sports payments.

Jamie Dimon … of JP Morgan fame … receives occasional criticism over his high salary.  He runs the bank on a daily basis and according to SEC filings receives around $36 million dollars a year.  What does Juan Soto receive for swinging a bat?  $51 million …  $314,000 a game … around $78,000 each time he steps to the plate … probably leaving Jamie Dimon to wonder if he would have been better served playing baseball at Dartmouth, rather than putting such a heavy focus on finance classes.

An article I included below talks of the reduction in what we might consider etiquette … as many seem to have become accustomed to the “me first” attitude … forgetting manners … whether it be talking (or texting) during a movie … or even holding a door for a person behind you. Even on the road, be prepared to be “beeped at” (or worse) if you dare fully stop at a stop sign or before you turn right on red … or … “heaven forbid” … not speed through a yellow light.  In so many ways, etiquette seems to be a dying art … and I question if we’ll ever recover.

On a final note for today, winter is soon to arrive … and with it comes snow.  One article below gives a stark warning that above a certain age (45) you need to be more cautious when shoveling.  The problem, of course, is how to get around it (by the way, I use a leaf blower if fresh snow is not too deep).  Paying some guy with a plow? Expensive … but that as today’s only remedy shows how things have changed.

I remember as a kid, snow was more than something to play in … it provided an opportunity to grab a shovel, walk around the neighborhood and get paid to shovel someone’s walk or driveway.

I’ll never forget the New Jersey morning when I woke up to a mountain of snow … checked my wallet to make sure I had enough money to pay some kid to clear the way … and sat and waited for the doorbell to ring. And I waited … and waited … and waited. Late that afternoon, after doing it myself … noticing no one else’s driveway was clear … I asked a neighbor when the “kids” might come around. He told me no one will … as the many kids in the neighborhood, having the day off from school, were ‘inside playing video games.”

Just another example of a rapidly changing world, but I always maintain hope … for I am optimistic … foolishly, perhaps … that some things (like etiquette) will improve.

I just keep in mind that whenever I think there is no hope left … no hope at all … to remember the lobsters that sat in the lobster tank of the restaurant on board the Titanic.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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