Good morning. Markets are on the rise this morning as investors sense the recent drop has allowed for investment opportunities as there may be growing opinion that the tariff-caused earthquake might not cause as much damage as feared. Still, the landscape has not only been altered… but continues to change by the day. On the one hand, we have companies starting to claim they will be coming to the USA … even if it takes years to ramp up. But not all are doing so, and some are just shifting their manufacturing to locations that … for the time being … are more tariff friendly. And how would a boost in manufacturing here actually look like? Um … maybe not as utopian as some believe. There is a funny (yet, not so funny) video that the Chinese government sent out were “AI” visualized what U.S. factories would look like … as … for example … a 250-pound American worker sitting at a sewing machine trying to stich a sneaker together (while eating chips and soda). The question comes to mind as to how interested our workers would be in working long hours for (assumingly) lower-pay factory positions … when manufacturers only recently were met with great difficulty in finding employees. If you recall, some even had to eliminate drug testing. And Goldman came up with an interesting comment on the effect of tariffs even if the goals are successful … as their view was that while a 10% boost would add 100,000 manufacturing jobs, we are reminded that service jobs are also affected … and it is their claim there would actually be a net loss of 500,000 positions … a massive number. Meanwhile, many are concerned over their own employment … as a NY Survey of Consumer Expectations shows the percent of those expecting higher unemployment in one year jumped to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic. Along these lines, more the 30% of Americans feel they will be “somewhat worse off” or “much worse off” financially … looking 12 months ahead. Not helping is the BofA Research report claiming “pandemic savings” are now gone and those making only minimum payments on credit card debt (where payoff is typically many years away) is higher now than at any time in the last decade. Ouch. That will wrap it up for me today as I will celebrate Tax Day by heading out to Costco. You probably know how much I enjoy shopping … and love when products give you something extra (like Cracker Jacks used to … when I was a kid). I buy one item that drives me nuts … as there is a gift included that never changes. I mean … would it kill the makers of avocados to put a different toy inside? … I now have like 50 wooden balls. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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