Good morning.

“Enough is enough!” screamed the Dow this morning as stocks turned sharply positive for mere moments … after opening with steep declines … and then jumped back down.  The session may prove to be quite volatile as with every utterance out of Washington, hundreds of points in the Dow are gained or lost in mere minutes.

In the movie, “Animal House,” there was a wonderful scene where all hell was breaking loose and Kevin Bacon stood among the smoke shouting “all is well” … when it certainly was not.

On this weekend’s business news channels, many White House cabinet members tried to perform their best Kevin Bacon imitations just one day after approximately a million or so Americans gathered to share their own collective view (right or wrong) that all was certainly not well … not well at all … and politicians … worried about reelection prospects … may be starting to take notice as whispers that question the tariff strategy appear to be getting louder.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent went on the offensive to claim Americans ready to retire are not worried about day-to-day market fluctuations and the headline of the White House website applauds that President Trump has unleashed “economic prosperity.”

One of the most interesting observations on my end was the review of an assessment made by Mark Zendi of Moody’s 6 months ago where he noted such gems of the environment at the time as:

•    “this is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist”
•    “Economic growth is rip-roaring, with real GDP up 3% over the past year”
•    “Corporate profits are robust, and the stock market is hitting a record high on a seemingly daily basis” and, the icing on the cake:
•    “in my time as an economist, the economy has rarely looked better”

In an abrupt reversal, Mark yesterday stated that the shocking hike in tariffs crushed global business sentiment and gave the view that unless sentiment recovers quickly, a recession is dead ahead … agreeing with JP Morgan equating a 60% chance.

I am going to sign off early today, and while I try to end my notes with a pun, I will refrain from doing that today. I’m just not in the mood.

I think I’ll shut off my computer for a while, get away from my stock screens and turn on the TV to watch a few minutes of “Animal House.”

I suspect many nervous investors will join me in looking toward Kevin Bacon for reassurance.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | April 7, 2025 As of 10:38 AM today: Jamie Dimon has been fairly quiet regarding tariffs … but seems to be growing increasingly worried that the result could be somewhat damaging (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/jamie-dimon-trump-tariffs-inflation-economy.html   … and small businesses feel as if they are pawns in the economic chess game now going on between Washington and … well … everybody (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/04/07/nx-s1-5352833/trump-tariffs-china-manufacturing-businesses   Do retirees even care about what is going on right now with the markets? One administration member claims they are not worried.  Um … (InvestmentNews) https://www.investmentnews.com/retirement-planning/bessent-claims-retirees-not-worried-market-rout-will-decimate-their-savings/260006   … but the president feels the U.S. will “win” … at least against China … and we will stick to our guns as long as a trade deficit remains (FoxNews) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-us-not-willing-make-deal-china-unless-trade-deficit-solved   Let’s say we all decide to buy American made cars … and nothing else.  We still have some hurdles to clear … as many components come from elsewhere (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/04/05/which-cars-vehicles-made-in-america/82758650007/   One of the things lost over the last week has been focus on the environment … as issues surrounding fossil fuels have certainly not gone away (CleanTechnica) https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/06/natural-gas-is-linked-with-cancer-not-wind-power/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.