Good morning.

Another day, another market-moving view on the tariffs.

With a report that the threatened Trump Administration tariff action will be gradual (rather than immediate and severe), investors tiptoed back into the market driving equities higher in the morning session … though it has just returned to “flatness” minutes ago. Combining that with a positive inflation print out earlier … showing wholesale prices increased less than expected … is providing new hope that prices might not rise to the degree feared.

Even so, Daily Shot is reporting that people have growing concerns about their jobs … even as we have just gone through a period where we have had the second-longest period of continuous payroll gains since 1939!  Yet, we worry.  It’s what we do best.

The last few times I walked through Costco, I noticed the egg portion of the refrigerator was empty. I thought it was due to a recent recall but just read (story below) a bird-flu is killing many egg-laying hens. While inflation in many areas seems to be getting under control, I suspect we will soon see price hikes for whatever eggs are able to be located.

Speaking of prices and Costco … I also noticed … and boy was I tempted … that a 98” TCL television (4K QLED) is selling for $1650.  I don’t really need it but something in my mind snapped for a moment (before sanity returned) as I found myself calculating how I would fit this monster into my car.

You do have to wonder, though, to what degree tariffs will affect prices on things such as these televisions … as I do not believe any are made in the U.S. … as that ship has long ago sailed (literally).

Meanwhile, we focus on so many things that do matter over the short-term and tend to ignore long-term issues … but here is one.

According to CBO (Congressional Budget Office) in the last note included below, sometime in the next 15 years the number of deaths will exceed the number of births … as our native population starts its descent in number (I included full report).  There is time to change this, but it will take government action (via incentives) and I don’t sense it being considered a priority at this point in time … and later on will be too late.

That about wraps it up for today as school started again … along with tuition payments.

My kid decided to take a trigonometry class … and with the university charging extra for this elective … he needed to take out a loan though his credit record is limited.

I had to cosine.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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