Good morning.

Indexes are showing little movement this morning as investors continue to review inflation data while continuing to play the fun game of trying to guess future moves by the Fed … leading to an interesting observation …

While Daily Shot agrees with most opinions, calling a rate cut announcement next week to be “… almost a certainty” … looking recent reports give a cloudier view.  Yesterday, the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) came in about as expected, while today the Producer Price Index (“PPI”) – measuring wholesale prices – was higher than anticipated … and still the thought remains a cut is still in store.

The issue? I think that since everyone seems to think we should have a cut, almost every story supports this view.  My opinion (in light of inflation still being here) is that an equal argument can be made that a cut should not be considered a certainty by any means, and could do more harm than good.

What else has me frowning this morning?  It was caused by a report I read written by economist Torsten Slok of Apollo, where he makes the statement that “interest rates are expected to remain permanently high.”  I mean, thinking back just a relatively short while ago we were shocked to see mortgage offers that actually fell to 3% or so.  Memories are indeed evil sometimes, but do we really think we will see mortgages drop to 4% or below any time soon?  I certainly have a hope they return to that level (barring an economic disaster) … but I know that deep down I am just kidding myself.

I suspect that ship has sailed.

You know, I was looking around my house yesterday … getting quite miffed over things that need fixing … each of them expensive … but factoring in the cost of moving elsewhere ends up making costs appear even more burdensome … and I feel increasingly trapped.  It’s just that it seems every time one item is fixed, another problem pops up.

I’m starting to think my house hates me.

That about wraps it up for today as I have a lunch meeting today … trying to time my arrival with a person who is always late.

It’s not the lateness that bothers me so much … though it does … but the arrival always with no apology and a smile … … and has come to be expected.

But it made me realize something.

People who are late always seem so much happier than those who have to wait for them.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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